The following is a recap from Avram Goldman of Pacific Union. Avram takes a look each month at the entire Bay Area. What you will note is the higher priced counteis are fairing better than other counties. This is because the recent tighting of mortgage money has not hit the higher end Buyer like it has the more moderately priced homes. You will find this trend even in Marin, where Novato's sales and prices are off while the prices in other parts of Marin have risen.
"Here is how each county fared for the month of October. The numbers are based on sales of single family homes and condos. As I stated above sales prices for the majority of counties did well. I will give both the median and average sales price percentages. The first number will be median and the second average. San Mateo county lead with +14%/+18.7%, Marin +8.4%/+15%,
Santa Clara +7%/+11% and San Francisco +5.4%/+11%. All these counties have the highest prices in the Bay Area. This shows the strength of the upper end markets. There is a great deal of wealth in the Bay Area due to the tech industry, venture capital and export/import businesses. Alameda county (+8%/+4%) although down on median was up on average again reflecting part of
the influence from the expense markets in No. Alameda county. Three counties were down Napa slightly at -2%/-.5%, Sonoma -8.6%/-10.6%, Contra Costa -10.6%/-2% and the hardest hit county Solano at -18.5%/-23%.
Number of closed sales was off significantly year over year for October; however seven of the nine counties were up month over month. The first number given is year over year for October and the second number is month over month Sept. to October. The leader in being least off from last year is San Francisco -11%/+21.5% followed by San Mateo -33%/-1%, Marin -34%/+21%, San Mateo -38%/+9%, Sonoma -40%/+2%, Napa -44%/+31%, Alameda -46%/+8%, Contra
Costa -48%/-3% and Solano -56%/-13.5%.
Months supply of inventory (MSI) gives us a picture of the type of market each of our counties are in---seller’s, balanced or buyer’s market. Three months and under is a seller’s market, 4-6 months a balanced market, 6-10 months a buyer’s market and over 10 months a strong buyer’s market. MSI is higher in every county this year compared to last year. I will note that San Francisco and Marin counties were only slightly higher than last year’s supplies. All counties were down in MSI Sept. compared to October which is a positive sign. The only county still considered in a seller’s market is San Francisco at with a 3 MSI. Only San Mateo county at 5.2 MSI is in a balanced market. Santa Clara 7.5 and Alameda 8.7 MSI are in a buyer’s market. Sonoma 10.2, Napa 13.4 and Solano 15.1 MSI find themselves in a strong buyer’s market. As a reminder these are county-wide figures. Within each of these markets there can be diversity. Meaning that in a seller’s market county you may have specific markets that have higher inventories and conversely within a buyer’s market you may find specific markets that have smaller inventories. "
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
October in Real Estate
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Where does all the money go????
A study by 'Ameriprise Financial,
Money Across Generations '(http://www.ameriprise.com/amp/global/docs/pr-money-generations-research.pdf)
shows that many Boomers are caught between financially
helping elderly parents and adult children. Thus,
the term “the sandwich generation.” Sometimes they open their wallets too easily and don’t realize that such generosity affects their ability to fund their own retirement.Only 9% of Boomers believe assisting their parents has
hurt their retirement savings, but 29% believe assisting their adult children has slowed their savings progress.
To assist adult children, four in ten boomers draw from “regular savings,” one in six even takes out loans, and six percent pull money from retirement savings.
Story #1 - Harvard MBA or Marin Real Estate 101
Back in 2000, I had a client, a Harvard Business School MBA. This young fellow was very good at statistics and he ventured out into the Real Estate market confident that this skill would help him make a great deal. We looked at many properties and none measured up to what he considered appropriate. Then we came upon a beautifully remodeled home in San Anselmo. The home was listed for $1,400,000. It had a separate cottage for the office, a full four bedrooms, beautiful landscaping and a gourmet kitchen that would be the envy of all their friends.
He asked me for information on all the homes that had sold in San Anselmo in the past year, and he proceeded to do an analysis of the information. We were meeting at the office during dinner time to write up an offer, so I brought in a Pizza. I informed him the agent had called and there would be another nine offers being submitted. He laid out his spread sheet and told me the average price of a home in San Anselmo of this size was $1,100,000, and the percent of asking that a home received was 100.73. The price he was going to offer was $1,250,000.
After I spit the pepperoni across the room, I suggested he reconsider this offer if he truly wanted the home. "What's average about this home" I asked. Since the offer was not contingent on the sale of another property, he felt this should compensate and put him in better stead than the other offers. Even though I insisted that non of the other offers were likely to be contingent and some if not all would be over the asking price, he was adamant this be the offer price.
I wrote up the offer and told him the next time, because there would be a next time, he could buy the pizza!
Well, I presented the offer with all the professionalism I would muster and was complimented on the best presentation of the day. ( I give the listing agent credit for not laughing at this offer given the circumstances!)
Friday, November 2, 2007
STATS
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Did you feel the earth move? 5 STEP EVACUATION PLAN
In the event of a sudden emergency, you may have just minutes
to gather your family and important papers, and get out of your house, possibly
for good. Are you prepared? Where would you go? What would you take with
you?With preparation and practice, you stand the best chance of getting out with
what you and your family need, and ending up in the right place. Planning ahead
is crucial; this five-step plan can help get youand your family on the road to safety:
1. Arrange Your Evacuation Ahead of Time
Identify where you can go in the event of an evacuation. Try to have more than one option: the home of a friend or family member in another town, a hotel or a shelter. Keep the phone numbers and addresses of these locations. Map out your primary route and a backup route in case roads are blocked or impassable. Make sure you have a map of the area available. In case your family members are separated before or during the evacuation, identify a specific place to meet and ask an out-of-town
friend or family member to act as a contact person. Listen to Weather Radio,
local radio or TV stations for evacuation instructions2. Create a Home Inventory
Create a complete home inventory of your personal
property. A home inventory will help you ensure that you have purchased enough
insurance to replace your possessions. It will also speed the claims process,
and will substantiate losses for income tax purposes. The I.I.I. has created the
Know your Stuff home inventory software, which can be found at www.knowyourstuff.org . This free, downloadable software helps you organize and list your possessions on your computer and then and burn the finished inventory onto a CD-ROM; you can also print a copy for your records. Whether you do your inventory electronically or on paper, make sure you keep a copy with your important documents and a second copy in a safe place outside your home (in a safe-deposit box, or with an out-of-town friend or family member).3. Plan What to Take
Medicines, prescriptions and first aid kit. Bottled water
Clothing and bedding (sleeping bags, pillows) Flashlight, battery-powered radio and extra batteries Special items for infants or elderly or disabled family members
Computer hard drive or laptop. Photographs, Pet food and other items for pets (litter boxes, leashes)4. Gather Important Documents
Keep important documents in a safe place
that you can access easily. In the event of an evacuation take the following
documents with you:
Insurance policies, Prescriptions, Birth and marriage , certificates, Passports, Drivers license or personal identification, Social Security cards, Recent tax returns, employment information, Wills, deeds and recent tax returns, Stocks, bonds and other negotiable certificates, Bank, savings and retirement account numbers
Home inventory
5. Take the Ten-Minute ChallengeTo find out if you are ready, do a
real-time test. Give yourself just 10 minutes to get your family and belongings
into the car and on the road to safety. By planning ahead and practicing, you
should be able to gather your family members and pets, along with the most
important items they will need, calmly and efficiently, with a minimum of stress
and
confusion.
GREAT HOUSE TO SEE THIS HALLOWEEN!
Monday, October 29, 2007
EAST or WEST... Marin is best!
We just got back from sailing on the Chesapeake. The weather was unusally warm and we both know we were at the perfect time. We thought, as we looked at the charming homes on the water and the beautiful boats on the Bay, how different this would be in the winter. Boats most likely would be hauled out of the water, all those houses had shutters by design (it gets cold!)
I also remembered another trip where I took 5 showers in a day.
I inquired about the home prices in St. Michaels and Annapolis (as the Presidential helicopter flew overhead). I was surprised that prices on the water with a dock.... are appropriately high everywhere.
The boat we rented had air conditioning. Wouldn't have thought of that on a sailboat, but, then again thinking about the summers in the east, I guess there are times when you wouldn't want to do without.
Hey, there's no place like home. Our crabs are better, our weather is better... now if I could just move that nice 6,000 sq ft home on the water with 5 acres, with the Adirondack chairs here... ahhhhh.... That would be perfect!
