The following is a recap from Avram Goldman of Pacific Union. Avram takes a look each month at the entire Bay Area. What you will note is the higher priced counteis are fairing better than other counties. This is because the recent tighting of mortgage money has not hit the higher end Buyer like it has the more moderately priced homes. You will find this trend even in Marin, where Novato's sales and prices are off while the prices in other parts of Marin have risen.
"Here is how each county fared for the month of October. The numbers are based on sales of single family homes and condos. As I stated above sales prices for the majority of counties did well. I will give both the median and average sales price percentages. The first number will be median and the second average. San Mateo county lead with +14%/+18.7%, Marin +8.4%/+15%,
Santa Clara +7%/+11% and San Francisco +5.4%/+11%. All these counties have the highest prices in the Bay Area. This shows the strength of the upper end markets. There is a great deal of wealth in the Bay Area due to the tech industry, venture capital and export/import businesses. Alameda county (+8%/+4%) although down on median was up on average again reflecting part of
the influence from the expense markets in No. Alameda county. Three counties were down Napa slightly at -2%/-.5%, Sonoma -8.6%/-10.6%, Contra Costa -10.6%/-2% and the hardest hit county Solano at -18.5%/-23%.
Number of closed sales was off significantly year over year for October; however seven of the nine counties were up month over month. The first number given is year over year for October and the second number is month over month Sept. to October. The leader in being least off from last year is San Francisco -11%/+21.5% followed by San Mateo -33%/-1%, Marin -34%/+21%, San Mateo -38%/+9%, Sonoma -40%/+2%, Napa -44%/+31%, Alameda -46%/+8%, Contra
Costa -48%/-3% and Solano -56%/-13.5%.
Months supply of inventory (MSI) gives us a picture of the type of market each of our counties are in---seller’s, balanced or buyer’s market. Three months and under is a seller’s market, 4-6 months a balanced market, 6-10 months a buyer’s market and over 10 months a strong buyer’s market. MSI is higher in every county this year compared to last year. I will note that San Francisco and Marin counties were only slightly higher than last year’s supplies. All counties were down in MSI Sept. compared to October which is a positive sign. The only county still considered in a seller’s market is San Francisco at with a 3 MSI. Only San Mateo county at 5.2 MSI is in a balanced market. Santa Clara 7.5 and Alameda 8.7 MSI are in a buyer’s market. Sonoma 10.2, Napa 13.4 and Solano 15.1 MSI find themselves in a strong buyer’s market. As a reminder these are county-wide figures. Within each of these markets there can be diversity. Meaning that in a seller’s market county you may have specific markets that have higher inventories and conversely within a buyer’s market you may find specific markets that have smaller inventories. "
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
October in Real Estate
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Where does all the money go????
Boomers, here's something I bet you already know.
At least those of you with grown children!
A study by 'Ameriprise Financial,
Money Across Generations '(http://www.ameriprise.com/amp/global/docs/pr-money-generations-research.pdf)
shows that many Boomers are caught between financially
helping elderly parents and adult children. Thus,
the term “the sandwich generation.” Sometimes they open their wallets too easily and don’t realize that such generosity affects their ability to fund their own retirement.Only 9% of Boomers believe assisting their parents has
hurt their retirement savings, but 29% believe assisting their adult children has slowed their savings progress.
To assist adult children, four in ten boomers draw from “regular savings,” one in six even takes out loans, and six percent pull money from retirement savings.
Story #1 - Harvard MBA or Marin Real Estate 101
After being in Real Estate as long as I have you have stories! Here in this Blog I hope to tell you some stories that may or may not make a valid point.
Today's story is about statistics.
Back in 2000, I had a client, a Harvard Business School MBA. This young fellow was very good at statistics and he ventured out into the Real Estate market confident that this skill would help him make a great deal. We looked at many properties and none measured up to what he considered appropriate. Then we came upon a beautifully remodeled home in San Anselmo. The home was listed for $1,400,000. It had a separate cottage for the office, a full four bedrooms, beautiful landscaping and a gourmet kitchen that would be the envy of all their friends.
He asked me for information on all the homes that had sold in San Anselmo in the past year, and he proceeded to do an analysis of the information. We were meeting at the office during dinner time to write up an offer, so I brought in a Pizza. I informed him the agent had called and there would be another nine offers being submitted. He laid out his spread sheet and told me the average price of a home in San Anselmo of this size was $1,100,000, and the percent of asking that a home received was 100.73. The price he was going to offer was $1,250,000.
After I spit the pepperoni across the room, I suggested he reconsider this offer if he truly wanted the home. "What's average about this home" I asked. Since the offer was not contingent on the sale of another property, he felt this should compensate and put him in better stead than the other offers. Even though I insisted that non of the other offers were likely to be contingent and some if not all would be over the asking price, he was adamant this be the offer price.
I wrote up the offer and told him the next time, because there would be a next time, he could buy the pizza!
Well, I presented the offer with all the professionalism I would muster and was complimented on the best presentation of the day. ( I give the listing agent credit for not laughing at this offer given the circumstances!)
When the dust cleared, the home sold for 250K over the asking price. My client was back on the hunt for a "deal" in a seller's market. The next time we found a home that was more"average" and he bought that.
Houses are widgets, they are each unique. The value they have depends on many factors and some of these factors are not measurable. You can walk into a house and just be blown away by the view, or the smell of the 12 cats that have made the living room home. It is very important to remember, when looking at sites like Zillow, for example, the statistics only hint at the story. They give you a broad background in which to position your unique home.
If you are considering selling a home, call a Realtor. Hey, call me. I can help you understand how your home stacks up against the stats!
Friday, November 2, 2007
STATS
Want stats on Marin Real Estate?
Check out the line below. You will be amazed at this wealth of info.
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